Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 13.548899 15.508399 17.622522 20.069362 22.819501 25.811187 29.308141
2025-02-16 10.548732 13.175805 16.233697 20.041189 24.639021 29.995099 36.689072
2025-02-23 9.000398 11.893136 15.427924 20.037436 25.858874 32.932871 42.142350
2025-03-02 7.926798 11.012946 14.949800 20.296065 27.316130 36.162782 48.089226
2025-03-09 7.026556 10.203554 14.412180 20.332891 28.373249 38.826735 53.344696
2025-03-16 6.211100 9.399265 13.773319 20.130374 29.033338 40.941430 57.930225
2025-03-23 5.655872 8.886664 13.462288 20.310185 30.168618 43.691746 63.449182
2025-03-30 5.318011 8.646558 13.498427 20.954306 31.956562 47.392219 70.425172
2025-04-06 4.803570 8.083825 13.005507 20.770809 32.514079 49.359468 75.023205
2025-04-13 4.150411 7.237697 12.009695 19.744841 31.738084 49.333513 76.706888
2025-04-20 3.916069 7.037838 11.985655 20.189432 33.176905 52.590372 83.319553
2025-04-27 3.695514 6.837625 11.939418 20.584106 34.544257 55.785591 89.963981
2025-05-04 3.374376 6.443402 11.558112 20.429112 35.062357 57.752916 94.904027
2025-05-11 3.061735 6.034157 11.118536 20.143685 35.347459 59.366022 99.368944
2025-05-18 2.846750 5.777621 10.913189 20.225911 36.219472 61.919322 105.393115
2025-05-25 2.676135 5.585990 10.803163 20.457451 37.342340 64.912510 112.235502
2025-06-01 2.493331 5.352955 10.599032 20.504400 38.143829 67.405029 118.356931
2025-06-08 2.291807 5.063440 10.267929 20.297053 38.484358 69.136876 123.283684
2025-06-15 2.160519 4.901039 10.158253 20.479322 39.508115 72.043623 130.268105
2025-06-22 2.097387 4.872056 10.297687 21.127901 41.391308 76.482718 140.006975
2025-06-29 1.940036 4.630297 10.006805 20.943157 41.748160 78.299190 145.325682
2025-07-06 1.703906 4.195288 9.300143 19.909432 40.476791 77.202833 145.538536
2025-07-13 1.642419 4.139187 9.351178 20.357385 41.994348 81.096694 154.637978